IRAN?

Crude stockpiles are now approaching their lowest levels of the year, which when last at those levels crude was $6 lower. Demand has remained disappointingly flat. The Consumer Price Index has declined for several consecutive months, the first time this has happened since the Depression.

The only indicator which has been accurately reflected in oil prices has been the declining dollar, but a declining currency is suggestive of investor's lack of confidence in that particular economy; and hardly a harbinger of energy demand growth.

Jobless claims in the US have unexpectedly climbed to a three-month high of 479,000. The IMF is about to approve the next tranche of emergency loans to Greece, exclaiming that they have made "great progress" with their austerity program, and European Central Bank head, Jean Claude Trichet has declared interest rates are at an "appropriate" level.

Still, everyone knows the EU is not out of the woods yet. So, the recent rally is short covering, or is there something else: Iran perhaps? Israel has gone dead quiet on the subject. Joint Chiefs Chairman, Admiral Mullen says the President has a military option, meaning there is a plan. And IDF forces are on exercise in Romania in terrain similar to what they would encounter where Iran's nuclear facilities are located. Is there a surprise down the road?

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