Oil - Paying The Piper - 24-08-2010
24.08.10 16:39


The widening acknowledgement that the global economy is not recovering, and that recovery never actually commenced caused commodities across a broad front to decline yesterday; a decline that  will probably continue in the absence of positive economic data. None is expected anytime soon.

 

The newest housing data is expected later this morning and investor's will probably draw no solace from them. One commentator, one clearly with an agenda, remarked, “People are focused on the headwinds more than the tailwinds.”

 

Certainly  historically low interest rates and signs of corporate strength are encouraging but mean little if people are not working and those that are, are still cowering in fear over job loss and foreclosure. And this talk of "double-dip," how absurd. By definition, to have a "dip" you would have had to have some sort or peak from which to dip, and that hasn't happened.

 

What we are seeing are classic signs of deflation, but policy makers are afraid to even mention the word. The result for energy demand growth, demand growth of any kind is dependant on correctly addressing the problem and that doesn't seem to be happening. The spiral of lower prices and wages has begun. Consumer's ire will be acutely felt in November. 

 

 

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