ALERT: SCALES STILL TIPPED TOWARDS SUPPLY DISRUPTION POTENTIAL.
 
 
PETROLEUM MARKETS

Market participants have to weigh carefully the changing cadences of price shifts for the subtle indicators that might reveal whether the potential to limit supply or faltering demand is dominating at any particular moment. Fighting continues for the fifth day providing rebels ample time to regroup, while Gaddafi refuses to give up. Meanwhile, in Syria governmental crackdowns have led to the death of 15 demonstrators and several others injured so far in Daraa region, while Yemen enforced a 30-day state of emergency in an attempt to gain grip on the growing numbers of anti-government protestors demanding the ousting of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The coin's other side shows growing stockpiles in the US where disappointing housing and durable goods numbers and persistent unemployment speak to slowing growth. In Europe, Portugal creeps closer to asking the rest of the EU for a bailout, a blow for energy demand growth there, as well. Three men suffered radiation burns at the  damaged Dai-Ichi nuclear plant in Japan prompting an evacuation order, the second in as many days. Lower close tonight may indicate shift in focus back on economics, particularly with the disappointing durables and capital goods numbers. Hold length until a close below 105.24.
 
 
TECH TALK

A lower close tonight will start to show the "M" top forming. A close above the previous high of 106.95 will negate that formation. The chart still shows an overall bullish look with prices above the major moving averages which are still arrayed to depict a rising market. Support comes in at 105.49 today and behind that at 104.64. There is still an active buy signal.
 

NATURAL GAS

Gas continues to surge higher on a positive technical wave, but helped now by cold weather forecasts and more short covering driving the front month contract. With structural imbalances persisting though there is not that much to sustain the advance with the exception of weather, sometimes that is enough. Weather forecasts for the next two weeks still show mostly cool temperatures for the Northeast and Midwest, which should firm up early spring heating loads and help support cash prices.
 

TECH TALK

The rounded bottom continues to trace out with another day of fresh highs yesterday and prices reaching almost 4.40 today, and further past the 200-day moving average. Most of the speculative shorts should be cleaned out by now so any further advances will be harder and harder to come by, especially once the thermometer starts climbing for good.

source: KilduffReport.Com