ALERT: LIBYAN REBELS APPEAR TO BE GAINING AS DOES EUROPE'S DEBT CRISIS.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Looks like Libyan rebels are on the advance against the loyalist forces of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. More importantly, it would appear that market participants are taking it as a signal to sell with prices at their lowest level today, near 103.80. Conversely, a re-emergence of Europe's debt crisis, amplified by Chancellor Merkel's electoral embarrassment looks to be interpreted as a negative for energy demand, as well. Markets that simultaneously must consider the pull of conflicting elements often get stuck in ranges as one element of the other assumes predominance. This is just the case now. No one is privy to any especial intelligence. A headline or a piece of unexpected data could spark a reversal without warning. China's demand for commodities appears to be relatively elastic in the face of repeated tightening and a mistrust of financial assets will dog the markets from time to time. A trap door may exist on the very next step but a fall to $100 isn't going to fatal.

 
TECH TALK

The "M" top keeps tracing out with today's significantly lower low of 103.76
 
 
NATURAL GAS

Gas prices have advanced on three of the five trading days last week so it will hardly surprise that speculative interests have increased net length by the largest amount since Jan. 4 and net-long positions exceeded shorts for the first time since February. Their confidence partly comes from the expectation of  colder-than-normal weather is in the Northeast and Great Lakes region through April 4 and because the Japanese nuclear shutdowns are going to lead to increased demand for LNG, which is raising prices both globally and locally. The exceptional cold of earlier this winter has left end-of-season gas inventories well below expectations but 1.549 is more than ample, actually it is very close to last year's record of 1.612 Tcf. The point is; structural imbalances still exist so do not look for extended upward momentum.
 
 
TECH TALK

The chart turned bullish  with a nearly 17% rally in the front month after hitting a 3-1/2-month low in early March. But the inability to extend now makes the market look overbought, particularly because most of the move up was short covering rather than new length. Acceleration has now extended to 4.475 already today, well past support; so for the moment long entry is suggested both tactically and strategically, but this upward move may already be overextended. Be careful.

source: KilduffReport.Com