ALERT: ONLY 382,000 FILED FOR JOBLESS BENEFITS LAST WEEK.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Only 382,000 ?*! Does that mean consumer spending is now on an upswing and the US economy is on the mend? Maybe. It certainly seems good enough for oil market participants who pushed prices up to the day's high, so far at 109.32, another new high for this leg of the move. With fighting in Libya showing no signs of abating and the dollar falling after China's fourth consecutive rate hike since October there are plenty of good reasons to acquire length. If 110.00 is reached, buying momentum could carry quite far. Still, the lower than normal volumes, narrow daily trading ranges and the potential economic damage consequent to sustained high oil prices should give the bulls pause, it does us. Watch what happens in Europe, with Brent above $120 and another country asking for a bailout, and now a rate hike. It could get ugly. If long, stay long, but be careful about jumping on the bandwagon now, there might not be a chair when the music stops.
 
 
TECH TALK

Crude putting up new highs makes the chart look more and more bullish. But the narrow daily ranges and lower volume mean that fewer and fewer longs are being established. At these levels, watch out for new highs being established and then settle ling lower, it will signify a loss of faith by the weak longs. There should be resistance today at 109.41,and again at 110.00. There is minor support at 107.98, a breach of which would target 106.40.
 
 
NATURAL GAS

It gets tedious, but a few important fundamentals usually control directional shifts in natural gas..., except when they do not. A bout of unseasonal cold pushed up prices through most of March, with an assist form a technical failure at the recent lows (a prime example of when fundamentals are ignored), and the idea that Japan would be importing additional LNG to make up for lost nuclear generation. Now we are in the zone where lack of significant heating or cooling demand against the backdrop of robust supply and production is once again weighing on prices. Prices are now at their lowest level in three weeks and momentum could carry the market lower. The strengthend-after-many-tests band of support waits below 4.00. EIA should report that only 28 bcf was pulled from stocks for the current reporting period which may speed up the move lower as most estimates are much higher than ours. Above 4.00 sell into any rallies.
 
 
 
TECH TALK

Natural gas continues its journey lower. The chart now has a decidedly bearish look. Prices are set to drop below the 10,40,and 60 day moving averages. Settlement on Tuesday below the 10 and the 40 activated a sell signal, and prices below today's initial support point of 4.17 show the markets inherent technical weakness. If prices continue to grind lower at the charts current slope, the recent lows could be reached next week. If they hold there then a significant base could produce a strong rally but if the selling continues through 3.73, 3.00 will be targeted and below that the 2009 low of 2.409.

source: KilduffReport.Com