ALERT: GREEK DEBT THREAT BACK IN FOCUS
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Prices stayed close to technical markers this morning so far. There was little follow-on momentum. Participants are sifting perceptions off of Chinese inflation data, rising tensions in Libya and the worsening European debt debacle. Prices have unconvincingly broken through support at 108.09 and posted a 107.77 low before reversing back over 108 again. There is little doubt that China will have to raise reserve requirements again. It is equally plain that European debt yields will go ever higher as the market punishes their profligacy. In the final analysis it is hard to see how the recovery will not be derailed.
 

TECH TALK

Prices broke through the congestion just before the last leg up and are testing another one near 106 that relates to price action as far back as the beginning of the "M" formation that we though might be a major top. If we settle below 106, a test of the bottom of that formation near 98.00 is very possible. With price action intraday still extending to almost 109.00 the move from the January lows may not have yet concluded, but a continuation will require a move past the recent highs at 114.00
 
 
NATURAL GAS

Gas prices reversed course during the session yesterday and ended higher after EIA reported that stocks rose only 28 bcf, less than the 33 bcf that  was expected. Total gas in storage is now 1.607 Tcf, not a particularly unwieldy amount as in years past. In fact, it raised the inventory deficit to last year by 51 bcf to 137 bcf and left the surplus to the five-year average unchanged at 10 bcf, or nearly flat. This will encourage the bulls and start to give weight to the case that a major bottom is in place. The abruptness of the turnaround considering how little off expectations were shows that participants are sensitive to news of this nature where they were not previously. Still, it will take a settlement above 4.50 to convince us.
 
 
TECH TALK

The 10-day moving average has moved under the 40 day and is heading towards the 60 day which shows it is still calculating in the recent fall from 4.50. The finish above the 10 and 60 day averages shows some strength on the near end and activates a buy signal. A finish above yesterday's high will be required to show momentum is building to the upside. signal.

source: KilduffReport.Com