ALERT: OIL RALLIES ON WEAKENING DOLLAR AND BULLISH INVENTORY REPORT.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

OPEC officialdom, contradicting themselves again, now do not expect oil to fall below $100 this year, even though there was no shortage in the market. Iran said an increase in crude output would not help bring down global oil prices, a day after other OPEC members said costly oil was hurting fragile consumer economies. Overall the dollar set the tone as investors flocked to the Euro at the expense of the dollar, bring oil and precious metals higher. Apparently, strong economic data from France and Germany overshadowed fears that Greece may have to restructure its debt. Of course they will. So will Ireland and Portugal and Italy. In the end it will spell the end of the EU, Chancellor Merkel's ministrations notwithstanding. That is when the dollar will turn, and the trap door will swing wide for gold and silver and oil.
 

TECH TALK

110.24 Last night's settlement above the 10-day moving average re-activated a buy signal. The averages are arrayed to depict a rising market. The congestion etched out since last week's fall from 114.00 has not really exceeded the highs of the congestion just before the last leg higher. Essentially 106-108 keeps getting covered again and again. Event risk, measuring exogenous elements unrelated to the markets fundamentals have been measured by the run to the highs and are priced in. Therefor, a break of 106 to the downside potentially could carry a long way, possibly to 98.00.
 
 
NATURAL GAS

Hotter than seasonal temperatures, particularly in the Southeast, helped push gas prices higher to a three week high yesterday. The warm weather across the South will spread to New York and New England in coming days, as well. Lingering heating demand across the Northwest and upper Midwest also helped buoy prices. This will also solidify the idea that a major bottom is now in place, given the overwhelmingly bearish fundamentals. Production levels are still high and feeding into storage where another 33 bcf injection will probably be reported tomorrow. Cover shorts, and stay with length but do not open new length until a settlement over 4.50 is posted. Consider call spreads, perhaps.
 
 
TECH TALK

The market broke above the moving averages giving the clearest indication so far hat a major bottom is in place. However, we would still like to see a settlement over 4.50 before we officially declare this. Settlement above the moving averages activates a buy signal, even while the 10-day is still in a downward slope and has crossed the 40 and 60-day averages. The narrow trading ranges of late has brought on a convergence of the averages so the 10-day could cross over and back up within a few sessions.

source: KilduffReport.Com