ALERT: CRUDE KEEPS ADVANCING DESPITE IEA'S WARNING OF SLOWDOWN CONSEQUENT TO RISING PRICES
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Market participants are generally ignoring IEA's comment that high oil prices have already caused slowing demand. Evidence of that was hard to find in yesterday's stockpile reports that showed crude and product both falling. Even refinery rates are recovering, hardly surprising given the generous margins. The falling dollar was again a major focus in yesterday's trade, and a further slide today should keep crude well above 110.00 going into the long Easter weekend. Political tensions are also high as Qaddafi continues to hold on in Libya and Syria and Yemen remain restive. Europe's debt crisis is speeding to a head, it is called "restructuring" for those who can't see it as a default. Consequently the high yields are pushing up the Euro at the expense of the dollar which in turn is supportive for oil. Another 400k filing for unemployment compensation in the US last week hardly makes for a strong recovery.  
 

TECH TALK

Moving averages are arrayed to depict this and the widening out between them shows the steadiness of the rise. The inability of the market to generate an official buy signal might prove problematic for the bulls because it shows some weakness at the front of the market. Despite yesterday's strong rise the latest bar on the chart only adds to a zone of congestion since the recent highs. A breakout would need a settlement above them which is still the best part of $2.00 away.
 
 
NATURAL GAS

Even though gas is up on the day, further advances may prove more difficult as milder weather begins to cover the Northeast and part of the Great Lakes region, next week. Highs may reach into the 70s in New York after the holiday weekend. Temperature ranges in the Southeast have been, and will continue to generate early season cooling demand. Time is running out for the shoulder season to push prices down. The ubiquitous spring planting is already on us and within a few weeks real cooling demand will start to appear and hurricane season is just around the corner. While overproduction will keep prices from running away, another push to 4.00 and below seems lees and less likely with each passing day. Look for EIA to report injections of 33 bcf later this morning. With expectations running much higher, this may propel prices over 4.50.
 
 
TECH TALK

The market is now well above the moving averages giving the clearest indication so far hat a major bottom may be in place. There is also an active buy signal. However, we would still like to see a settlement over 4.50 before we officially declare this. The 10-day moving average has turned upward and is above the rest indicating a rising market. The market is also well ahead of the pivot for today at 4.308 and first resistance, as well at 4.346.

source: KilduffReport.Com