ALERT: COMMODITIES SEE PRESSURE, A CONSEQUENCE OF INFLATION FEARS.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Volumes were diminished yesterday by the Easter Monday holiday in Europe, but the market still managed to cover $2.40 worth of ground, finishing virtually unchanged. Commodities across the board though look to be pressured by rising inflation fears and the consensus that the Fed is finished with its quantitative easing program. Participants in all markets will be looking at the conclusion of tomorrow's Fed meeting to see if a directional cue can be divined. With unemployment persistently high, it is doubtful that the Federal Open Market Committee will urge Chairman Bernanke to raise rates. Without the help of rising interest rates the dollar will stay pressured and as a consequence help buoy oil prices, which already have plenty of help from potential supply threats emanating from any of a half dozen flash points. Yesterday's buying seemed particularly tentative, so our skepticism remains intact until a settlement over recent highs
 
 
TECH TALK

The chart looks exactly the way a rising market should look. Moving averages are arrayed to depict a rising market and there is an active buy signal. With prices a little bit ahead of today's pivot at 112.28 the front to the market shows strength. The inability to break above recent highs yesterday after a new high for this particular leg was struck, should give the bulls some pause. Unbroken support at 111.00 suggests that another assault at 113.48 is possible. However if that mark is broken, a fall to 108.00 could occur rapidly. Don't be surprised at a Commitments report that shows lots of additional length.
 

NATURAL GAS

The mercury will produce milder readings in the Northeast this week, but  still-cool Upper Midwest readings and heat across the South should lend strength to the market after a round of profit-taking was initiated as 4.50 approached. Additionally, the unexpectedly large number of nuclear facilities, down for spring refueling or maintenance, has helped boost demand. Still, with overproduction and several weeks to go before full-blown summer cooling demand kicks in prices should be somewhat restrained. Another assault on 4.00 looks unlikely.
 
 
TECH TALK

With prices well above the moving averages there is an active buy signal. The 10-day moving average reversed its course several days ago and is above and pulling away from the 40 and 60-day averages. Accentuating the front end strength, the market is running ahead of the pivot, despite some profit-taking yesterday. The near term target remains the previous high 4.559 from late March. A settlement above that mark could unleash additional upward momentum.    

source: KilduffReport.Com