ALERT: BERNANKE PRESS CONFERENCE AT 2:15.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Crude traded in a fairly tight range in the overnight electronic session as participants awaited supply data and the Feds rate decision. More importantly, the world is wondering if a directional cue will be gleaned once the curtain is pulled back when the wizard Bernanke  holds his press conference, later today. The end of QEII will be a supportive signal for the dollar, although the central bank is expected to keep interest rates low for some time given the dismal employment picture. Still it should put downside pressure on crude prices. Saudi comments yesterday signaled the discomfort from high oil prices and the effect on economic growth, while Treasury Secretary Geithner seconded the option by calling them an obstacle to economic growth. We agree, whether the market does or not will come later today. As we have been saying all week, until we see a move above the recent highs, we remain skeptical. The bottom line though is do not expect much strength from the dollar until US interest begin to rise.
 
 
TECH TALK

The chart has a succession of bars similar to those earlier in the month near 108.00, just before the market took off. The inability to break out to the upside is making the market look overbought, and due for a pullback. Basically, price action has covered the same ground for three days. There is an active buy signal, and prices are running well ahead of the averages which are, in turn, arrayed to depict a rising market. The market has everything going for it both technically and fundamentally so naturally it can be concluded that it should go higher, yet is has not. There lies the rub. Watch out for Bernanke.
 

NATURAL GAS

The failure to gain new ground put participants in a mood for more profit taking in gas yesterday, but the market only finished down only marginally. Prices have registered sharp gains, of late; particularly surprising because this time of year is usually characterized by low demand. A rebound of one of nearly 10% has occurred since testing and holding support in the $4 area two weeks ago, bolstered by support not only from cold northern tier weather but also rising heat in the South. But with the structural imbalances that have dominated for some time and the pace of injections starting to pick up, a final push to 4.50 will become somewhat sluggish as overbought conditions appear.
 
 
TECH TALK

Prices continue above the moving averages a little behind today's pivot at 4.438. The mixed signal points out the market's burgeoning overbought condition which may take a few sessions to work off. The target on the upside remains 4.559 from late March. The 4.20 area hold support relating as far back as early February, where the market broke down as the the last lag to 4.00 commenced. A buy signal is still active with last night's settlement above the moving averages. Look as pullbacks as buying opportunities.
 

source: KilduffReport.Com