ALERT: BERNANKE GIVES NO SIGN FED ABOUT TO TIGHTEN.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Price action after Chairman Bernanke's press conference yesterday made it look like participants, particularly speculative interests, had license to keep pushing prices even further away from fundamental reality. But with prices down in negative territory we have to wonder why yesterday's running of the bulls didn't turn into a stampede. This time of year, and this year especially, blaming the rapacious speculators and the evil oil companies for high prices is very popular. With this kind of light shone on these pools, there may be a consequent shedding of length and oil companies may not enjoy the rich margins that are dressing up there balance sheets much longer. EIA has already chronicled the drop in demand for gasoline and average miles driven has dropped significantly from pre-recession highs. This phenomenon should continue right into driving season and keep prices at the pump from moving much past $4.00 as a national average.
 
 
TECH TALK

Crude oil's break of 113.46 resistance argues that recent rally has resumed even though upside momentum is not too convincing yet. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 110.71 minor support from yesterday's low  holds. A potential run past recent highs near 114.00 is certainly possible, but we have to question why buyers ran out of momentum. On the downside, below 110.71 will flip bias back to the downside and could extend to near 108.00, the launch point of the last leg higher. The inability to break out to the upside is making the market look overbought, and due for a pullback. Basically, price action has covered the same ground for three days. There is an active buy signal, and prices are running well ahead of the averages which are, in turn, arrayed to depict a rising market. The market has everything going for it both technically and fundamentally so naturally it can be concluded that it should go higher, yet is has not. There lies the rub.
 
 
NATURAL GAS

May expired, the market was pressured for the third as Northeast and Midwest temperature readings turned to levels which would not be helpful to either cooling or heating demand, but unusually high nuclear refueling limited selling. Commentary by Fed chief Bernanke did not effect gas prices. After posting the highest prices since holding $4.00 earlier in the month participants rolled out of front month on expiration yesterday. Although nuclear outages may add about 1.1 bcf to daily gas demand, another test of recent highs in the 4.65 area will take a bit of doing until real cooling demand kicks in a few weeks hence. Comfortable inventories and record high production will also weigh on the market. We expect EIA to report that 41 bcf was injected to storage later this morning.
 
 
TECH TALK

Gas should maintain its bullish look despite three days of selling. Support comes in at 4.271 and the market is below today's pivot of 4.433 showing remaining weakness in the front of the market. The market is still running ahead of the moving averages so there is an active buy signal. If support at 4.271 does not hold, a break of 3.99, quite far away, would be required to signal a reversal with a target of 3.731. The market is on track though to rise to the recent high above 4.80, posted back during January.
            

source: KilduffReport.Com