ALERT: THE WORLD WILL NOT END TOMORROW.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Commodities in general are pressured by investor outlook that the rally has far outrun fundamentals, confirmed by signals suggesting a slowing of the global recovery. Crude oil basis July are stuck in a narrow range just below $100 which may be a temporary ceiling. The market remains sensitive to economic data, and especially from the US. A possible confirmation of participants wariness could be contained in the contraction in leading indicators in May,  the first drop since June, which signals slowing outlook for growth over the next three to six months. Existing home sales also fell unexpectedly and manufacturing activity slowed drastically which depressed crude gains on fears over the outlook for demand. For now, the sentiment is mixed but biased to the downside as the excessive rally for commodities and especially crude has fueled inflation pressures and threatens to cripple the global recovery.
 
 
TECH TALK

Crude oil's recovery is limited to with a probable range of 96.00 to 100.00. An upside break of 104.60 will bring stronger rebound towards the recent114.83 high. If broken though the next target will be about 84.00, where prices were when the Egyptian crisis was at its apogee. Given that geopolitical troubles in the region have hardly cooled and are, in fact, bubbling anew this is unlikely. For the moment look at the 94.00- 96.00 area as a resting point for range trading to commence
 
 
NATURAL GAS

Prices have broken down below important support levels, which draws the structural imbalances of ample supply, constrained demand and mild weather into focus again. What this means is that both technical and fundamental considerations point in the same direction, a difficult cue to take lightly or ignore. Just a few bcf more than expectations were enough to drive prices lower. One of the key elements driving demand this spring has been  unusually large nuclear outages. As these units return to service after planned spring maintenance more gas will be headed into storage. EIA expects storage injections this stock-building season to total 2.29 Tcf, the largest April-through-October build since 2003. That would drive domestic inventories to an all-time high near 3.87 Tcf by next winter. But with cooling demand and the threat of hurricanes just around the corner a test below 4.00 may not be as certain as it was earlier in the year.
 
 
TECH TALK

The break of 4.109 support put the bias to the downside for a possible test 3.99 support which then targets the recent 3.731 low. A break back above support, now turned resistance at 4.20 will again point to a 4.879 target, which if broken points to 6.108. Right now though, the bear case seems the most logical but also the most vulnerable to develop oversold conditions. With prices very close to today's pivot of 4.126, shows a burgeoning strength.
 

source: KilduffReport.Com