ALERT: PAPANDREOU SURVIVES. MARKETS GET TEMPORARY REPRIEVE.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

Crude's fortunes are still waxing and waning on the latest headlines from Greece. OK Papandreou survived and Greek legislators are going along with austerity measures. Great! Now, implement them and watch the streets erupt. The rest of the EU is acting like the suitor who doesn't want to believe that their partner just told them they want to break up. The population s of the EU countries have been used to a very wide social safety net since the war. They will just vote out the current lawmakers and get a slate in there who will attempt to preserve them. No matter what happens the very best that can come out of it is severe economic dislocation until a complete restructuring occurs. Growth prospects for most Gulf Arab oil exporters in 2011 have improved markedly from forecasts three months ago, helped by high crude prices, but popular unrest is likely to change that calculation. Similarly, another element blamed for high prices, U.S. oil refiners operating at lower capacity, is under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission trying to determine if there is manipulation of crude and oil product prices. Good luck!
 

TECH TALK

Crude oil has positioned a temporary bottom near 92.00 and now the top of the range needs to be posted. Yesterday's late rally suggested as such. Still backing off at 94.00 in the early going today shows downward momentum is still quite strong. Resistance comes in a bit higher than yesterday's high at 95.22. Prices are still below the moving averages so that means there is still an active sell signal. They are pointing down and are arrayed to depict a falling market, as well. However, prices have held just above first support at 93.00. Technicals may not be too good a guide today with a Fed rate announcement in the wings.
 

NATURAL GAS

Gas broke its six day losing streak yesterday as slowing downward momentum caused some to reap profits. This phenomenon has been repeated many times in the gas markets. The fundamentals present as an easy read; ample supply, high production, a constrained economy and relatively mild weather. Under these conditions who wouldn't sell? Shorts build up and the slightest wiggle to the upside sends the weak ones heading for the exits. If enough momentum is generated, older positions get caught up in it, and stops get triggered. Once they are elected buying drys up and sharp downturns follow as you can see on the chart, almost immediately after every rally similar to the action in mid-April, early May and just a few weeks ago. Any buying that extends past 4.50 should be seen as a selling opportunity.
 

TECH TALK

Despite strength yesterday and continuing into today, the chart still looks bearish. Prices are still below the moving averages which means there is an active sell signal. The 10-day has turned down and the 40 and 60-day are starting to sag, as well. Major trend line support comes in the low $4.20s, with the  200-day spot moving average at about $4.15. Resistance was seen at the 40-day moving average in the mid-$4.40s. The front end is above first support at 4.369 suggesting some short covering activity remains.

source: KilduffReport.Com