ALERT: US JOBS DATA TRUMPS ALL.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

The disappointment over Friday's jobs data, that pushed prices $2.47 lower, continued into the overnight session, erasing last week's gains. Additionally, policymakers failure to reach an accord reach over America's onrushing debt limit deadline, bond vigilantes now putting Italy in their sights and acceleration in inflation and moderation in growth in China, raise skepticism over the sustainability of recovery. The euro has suffered, to the benefit of the dollar, which is also weighing on oil prices. Hardly surprising, was the Commitments report which showed traders' sentiment turning bullish for the week ended July, 5th. What will be even more interesting is next week's measure which will show how many of those long positions were abandoned. The fulcrum upon which the market's direction tips, is whether, two years on, the recovery is for real.  
 
 
TECH TALK

The neckline of the inverse head and shoulders formation, the breach of which heralded last week's rally has now reversed. Prices are also below the 13-day EMA. The question will be whether or not the market settles here or lower tonight. So, for the moment, the bias has flipped to neutral. A lower settlement today probably means that the  rebound from 89.61 has likely finished at 99.42. First support comes in today at 94.80 and, as of this writing, sellers were stopped cold, suggesting lingering inherent strength. The rebound from that mark though has only showed tepid momentum.
 
 
NATURAL GAS

Even though  parts of the Plains and Western Midwest could see extreme heat toward the end of this week, Friday's rally was probably more short-covering than anything else. The price recovery came despite losses that were experienced in the previous session on a larger-than-expected weekly inventory injection. Thursday's storage report from EIA  showed total domestic gas inventories rose 95 bcf to 2.527 Tcf, well above estimates for an 80 bcf build. With supplies at that level, any rally should be short lived, but that has proved to be a problem over the last several months. Tests of $4.00 have been rejected before as short positions build to grossly oversold conditions.
 

TECH TALK

Even though prices posted the lowest level since the Spring, traders have again rejected a test of $4.00. Still, the chart presents as quite bearish. The market lingers below the 13-day EMA and fall from the most recent high of 4.983 is expected to continue as long as 4.411 resistance remains intact. A breach however, will suggest a reversal and set up a test of that mark. But for now, the  the break of 4.077 support indicates that the rise from the 3.731 low was completed at 4.983.A break of 3.731 support will likely pave the way to 3.255 and below.
 

source: KilduffReport.Com