ALERT: MAKE FRIENDS WITH THE TREND....IF YOU CAN FIND IT.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

If price action is saying anything it is that at current levels, participants are even more confused about the market's next direction. Asian stocks fluctuated between gains and losses, oil prices weakened and gold advanced further on safe-haven demand. Rolling eyes are meeting the results of stress tests on European banks because most do not believe it is tough enough. Talks on the "financial stability" of the region continue in Brussels on Thursday, while in the US raising the debt ceiling is no closer to resolution. The dollar maintained its upward trend after last week's unexpected data that showed easing inflationary pressures. Additionally, the Fed signaled that another round of quantitative easing is indeed an option although an unlikely one, which also supported the dollar. So the question remains....as global policymakers continue to fiddle while the global economy burns, what is there ahead that can be good for energy demand growth? Not much.
 
 
TECH TALK

The break of 96.00, which should have heralded a move to 102.00 flamed out well short of the target. Essentially the range the market has adopted is 94.00-100.00, with most price action defined by 96.00-98.00. The market does not seem to be able to sustain itself over the 13-day EMA for more than two sessions, nor is follow on selling generated when it ducks below. A settlement above  97.70 should  increase the probability of the continuation toward the recent highs. Remember, when following trends, determining and riding weakness or strength is key. In ranges, just the opposite is required, fading weakness or strength.
 
 
NATURAL GAS

This time of year it is hard to trump a heat wave over New York and Chicago when coupled with the development of tropical activity, and that is exactly what is buoying prices. Not only did prices settle at a one month high, the second tropical storm is on the map: Bret. For the moment the track should be away from gas production in the Gulf, but it does remind market participants this activity affects markets. Still markets are advancing in the early going today but still below June 15's settlement of 4.577. Market technicians will now make the case that the market could run up toward $5 in the next week or so, but there should be considerable resistance ahead. Bret will blow away and heat will pass but high production  and economically constrained demand will be hard for potential bulls to ignore.
 
 
TECH TALK

The strong bounce off the recent low of 4.064, where the was also no follow on selling, turns the bias to the upside, particularly now that the recent highs have almost been breached in only a few sessions. The most recent high of 4.577 is within reach and if the market settles over it, then 4.983 will be targeted. This sort of action suggests that the fall from that mark has been completed. Still, the dominant pattern may actually be the fall from 6.108, earlier in the year, but the prominent high subsequent to that high at 5.194 need to be conclusively breached before that can be confirmed. If 4.577 remains unbreached on settlement for a few sessions then interim support becomes 4.064 and a breach there targets 3.731.
 

source: KilduffReport.Com