ALERT: MARKETS CHEER GREECE PLAN, FOR NOW.
 
PETROLEUM MARKET

The price action of overnight financial markets are an expression of relief by participants that they don't have to respond to a default by Greece, a potentially destabilizing event for the whole Eurozone. Equities rallied around the globe, peripheral yield spreads narrowed, the dollar suffered to the benefit of the euro, oil jumped and gold slipped. What remains now is whether the US will arrive at a resolution to its debt ceiling controversy. A positive announcement during today's session could generate considerable upward momentum. Crude oil is hewing closely to the positive tone in the overnight session, maintaining a fairly tight range in positive territory with solid volume. The inability to post new highs suggests some pre-weekend profit taking that may eventually carry below yesterday's settlement. Today keep one eye on the dollar index and an ear cocked to statements from US policymakers. Don't forget, this is not the end of Europe's problems and an agreement in the US has still not been nailed down. Finally, what is there good about another 400k plus workers filing for unemployment compensation?

 
TECH TALK

Trading above the high, of the recent trading range, 99.81, refocuses the market back on 102.00, the original target  of the breakout from the inverse head and shoulders two weeks ago. Resistance is just beyond at 102.44 and a break will confirm the upward trend. Overall though, as long as that remains intact the decline from early May is still the dominant formation. The current rally is still in its formative stage and consequently at its most vulnerable. While it does not seem imminent a sudden reversal back below 96.00 is possible. We like this rally, we called it,  it could carry well beyond resistance but we also warn that it is vulnerable. If you are on it, stay with it, but be very, very careful about opening new length here. Wait for a settlement above 102.44 to add or open new length.
 
 
NATURAL GAS

The heat wave breaking up over the weekend, Bret and Cindy churning harmlessly out in the Atlantic and an EIA report showing storage  injections were 60 bcf for the week ended July 15th  combined to let the air out of the recent rally, producing a four day low.  Stocks were 213 bcf less than last year at this time and 59 bcf below the five-year average. While high summer will continue to produce cooling demand, overproduction will proceed apace, as well, acting as a brake to any meaningful upward movement, particularly if tropical activity remains subdued. In that most of the week's gains have been erased, price action heading into the weekend should be mostly contained today.
 
 
 TECH TALK

Yesterday's bar will make the bias mildly lower, for the moment. With 4.383 support unbroken the market does retain some inherent strength. However, today's price action, so far contained below resistance at 4.454, suggests that that is waning. Overhead resistance at 4.632, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 4.983 to 4.064 move should prove fairly stiff, having been rejected once by participants. A break higher from there would require considerable momentum though which could carry to and past 4.983. Alternatively, a break down through 4.383 should bring 4.064 under pressure rather quickly and target 3.371.

source: KilduffReport.Com