| Germany: Exports rise in September |
| 08.11.11 12:09 | |
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German exports rose by 0.8% in September, a positive surprise compared to what we and the consensus (-0.8%) had expected. At the same time, imports fell by 0.8% and the trade balance registered a large surplus in the amount of EUR17.4bn. Export performance was strong across regions; exports to euro area countries, other EU countries, and the rest of the world rose 11.5%, 9.5% and 10.1%, respectively, all in calendar and seasonally adjusted terms (y/y). In real terms, net exports are set to contribute about 0.2 percentage points to German GDP growth in Q3 2011, which we forecast at 0.5% (q/q). While we project a slight contraction in German GDP in Q4 2011, we still expect a modest recovery in economic activity in early 2012, driven by more robust U.S. and Asian demand. This remains a close call but today's export figures and the improvement in manufacturers' export expectations recently reported by IFO give us some comfort. source: BarCap |
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