| Italy: Berlusconi short of an absolute majority; is vulnerable to a new no-confidence vote |
| 08.11.11 19:06 | |
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In today's key litmus test of support, Italy's government received just 308 votes in the lower house vote (on the 2010 public accounts), six short of an absolute majority and nine less than in the mid-October vote of confidence. It therefore won a simple majority today only on account of 321 abstentions (of which, at least two were non-appearances). As we discussed previously, today's vote was not a formal confidence vote. However, it looks like PM Berlusconi no longer can rely on an absolute majority in the lower house, raising further doubts about the capacity of the government to approve structural reforms requested by EU partners and financial markets. President Napolitano could potentially request Mr Berlusconi to report directly to him on today's outcome. Over the next few days, the PM will have to try to find a way to re-constitute his majority as the opposition party might decide to call for a no-confidence vote on the government, as Mr Bersani, leader of the main centre-left party, PD, has hinted during the past few days. In order to accomplish this, it is possible that PM Berlusconi decides to resign and propose another Prime Minister. In the event Mr Berlusconi were to lose a no-confidence vote, he would have to resign. President Napolitano would then ask him to try to seek an alternative majority in the Parliament. Should he fail to do that, President Napolitano would be likely to open up the so-called 'political consultation' period to assess whether an alternative majority led by another PM would be feasible. In the latter case, a potential new PM could be a member of the current government coalition, or even someone currently not in Parliament (former EC Competition Commissioner, Mario Monti, has been mentioned by local and international media as a potential candidate). We think President Napolitano would dissolve Parliament and call for new elections only if he realises that an alternative stable majority could not be achieved with the elected MPs now sitting in Parliament. source: BarCap |
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