| US trade deficit narrows on stronger export growth |
| 10.11.11 16:42 | |
|
The US trade deficit declined to $43.1bn in September, compared with a revised $44.9bn (initial: $45.6bn) in the prior month. The decrease was more than we ($45.8bn) or the consensus ($46bn) was expecting. The narrowing was driven by a broad-based 1.3% m/m (sa) rise in exports. The largest percentage gains within exports were in consumer goods (5.3%), industrial supplies (3.2%), autos (1.7%) and civilian aircraft (1.7%). Imports increased a more modest 0.3%, reflecting declines in capital goods (-1.0%) and consumer goods (-0.5%), though industrial supplies rose 1.4%. In terms of geographic regions, exports to the euro area increased on a non-seasonally adjusted basis by 0.5%. However, after we adjust for seasonality, exports fell 0.6%, suggesting the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area may be starting to have a modest effect on exports to that region. As we have noted before, however, slower export growth during the summer was due primarily to weaker exports to Asia and was most pronounced to those going to China. In September, this appeared to be reversing, as exports to Asia (NICS) increased a substantial 13.8% (nsa) and by 10.1% (sa). To China, exports declined 0.5% (nsa), but increased on a seasonally adjusted basis by 3.5%. In terms of the implications for real GDP, the real goods deficit also narrowed to $45.4bn in September from a revised $46.3bn (initial: $47bn) in the prior month, which raised our Q3 tracking estimate from 1.8% to 2.3%. Overall, this report is reassuring from that standpoint that even if some export demand to the euro area declines, increasing demand for US goods in Asia can support continued export growth. source: BarCap |
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|