| Germany: Robust GDP growth registered in Q3 |
| 15.11.11 10:11 | |
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The German economy grew 0.5% (q/q, seasonally and calendar day adjusted) in the third quarter, as we and the consensus expected. Moreover, Q2 GDP growth was revised up from 0.1% to 0.3%. Details have not yet been released but the German Statistics Office noted that the main GDP Q3 growth contribution came from final household consumption. Fixed capital investment likely contributed positively to growth as well, while net exports may not have contributed much, if at all. The annual 2011 GDP growth figure is likely to be a solid 3 percent, although we continue to expect a GDP contraction in this year's final quarter as the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area is increasingly weighing on domestic demand, especially investment. For early 2012, we forecast modest expansion in German economic activity, driven by more robust U.S. and Asian demand, but this remains a close call and requires that the debt crisis is contained. source: BarCap |
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