| Euro area consumer confidence edged down only moderately; private consumption likely to fall in Q4 |
| 22.11.11 17:41 | |
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Euro area November "flash" consumer confidence decreased from -19.9 to -20.4 (Barclays Capital:-21.0; no consensus). Although this marks the fifth consecutive decline, today's outturn is the smallest (-0.5) since July 2011. The average decline over the past five months is still nevertheless -2.1 points. Although the pace of the deterioration has slowed continuously since the 5.3-point drop in August, it nevertheless suggests that the outlook for private consumption appears rather dim in the euro area. As a result, this is rather consistent with our baseline scenario for private consumption, which we expect to fall 0.2% q/q in Q4, due to rising unemployment and inflation. Besides, the savings rate is also likely to edge up against the great uncertainties in the outlook. Components of the headline index will be published within the overall European Commission survey next Tuesday. source: BarCap |
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