The Halifax house price index fell significantly in November. The headline measures decreased by 0.9% m/m after increasing by 1.2% previously (consensus: 0.0% m/m), highlighting the volatile monthly pattern in UK house prices throughout this year.

The less volatile three months average measure reported prices falling by 0.6% 3m/3m compared with -0.3% previously. The Halifax house price data is in contrast with the Nationwide index, which reported house prices increasing by 0.4% m/m in November.
 
Owing to the volatility in the data, the MPC looks at the 3m/3m average of the Nationwide and Halifax surveys. This measure reported a fall by 0.2% 3m/3m from -0.3% previously (see chart), a smaller decrease than reported by the Halifax survey. The house price data published for November so far has reported mixed news on the housing market. Nevertheless, beyond the monthly volatility, house prices have been broadly flat over the past year as weak demand has been balanced by low supply. We do not expect to see any significant improvements in the housing market in the coming months with the uncertain economic outlook and a fragile labour market likely to weigh on housing demand.


source: BarCap