| German factory orders strongly rebound in October |
| 06.12.11 13:18 | |
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Total German factory orders (sa) rose a substantial 5.2% m/m in October, significantly better than the consensus (+1.0%) and our forecast (+1.5%), on the back of a sharp drop in September slightly revised down to -4.6%. The outcome does not appear to have been distorted by large-ticket items, core orders excluding other transport equipment grew by about 3%, and was mainly driven by strong orders from abroad. Non-euro area foreign orders rose about 8% and orders from other euro area countries even grew by about 9%. Foreign investment goods orders surged 12% and core foreign investment orders, again excluding transport equipment, rose about 5%. Core investment orders from German firms also picked up slightly (about 2%) and domestic consumer goods orders held steady at robust levels. These figures point to some recovery in global investment demand, including in the euro area. In view of the persistently weak PMI and IFO results for new orders, however, we are reluctant to call today's figures the beginning of a positive trend. But they are very encouraging for our German GDP forecast that includes a soft patch in 2011Q4 followed by a modest recovery in 2012. source: BarCap |
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