Swiss trade surplus rose to CHF3.04bn (sa) in November as imports retreated more strongly than exports

The Swiss trade balance (sa) rose to CHF3.04bn in November from CHF1.84bn the previous month. That said, it has remained at a fairly elevated level. Exports (real, sa) fell 6.8% m/m after a 0.9% m/m gain in October, rising 3.2% y/y (real, wda). Imports (real, sa) were down 7.7% m/m, following a 1.4% m/m gain in October. On an annual basis, real (wda) imports were down 4.0% y/y. According to our preliminary calculation, Swiss net trade may well make a positive contribution of around 1.4pp in December to the q/q real GDP growth rate (Q3: 1.3pp, Q2: 0.9pp and Q1: 1.1pp). Overall, we believe the Swiss economy is up for a 2.0% y/y real GDP growth in 2011, followed by 0.5% y/y in 2012.

source: BarCap