Euro area December "flash" consumer confidence dropped to -21.2 from -20.4 ( Barclays Capital forecast: -22.0). As far as Q4 is concerned, the consumer confidence index is thus suggesting weaker momentum than the zero annual growth for private consumption pencilled in our forecast (also consistent with a flat print on a quarterly basis).
 
With this sixth decline in a row, the consumer confidence index is thus consistent with our private consumption forecasts, which entail a drop in Q1 on an annual basis should the index remain at the same level (see chart).
 
Components of the headline index will be published within the overall European Commission survey on 6 January 2012.


source: BarCap