| France: Q3 GDP rebound to 0.3% q/q (revised from 0.4%), driven by private consumption |
| 23.12.11 09:21 | |
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France: Q3 GDP rebound to 0.3% q/q (revised from 0.4%), driven by private consumption (unrevised); households' purchasing power stable France's final estimate of Q3 GDP was revised to 0.3% q/q (from 0.4%), after falling 0.1% q/q in Q2 (unrevised). According to the INSEE, the revision was mainly due to a revision of some indicators available in the First Results (notably production) and to the integration of data released since then (mainly turnover indices for September in replacement of extrapolations). As in the preliminary estimate, the main positive contribution came from internal demand. Looking ahead, we expect the French economy to contract in Q4 (-0.2% q/q). The deterioration in the labour market since June 2011 indicates that a negative feedback loop in confidence is in play. Moreover, the fact that the French government will step up the pace of consolidation is also likely to weigh on domestic spending. Beyond depressing investment and private consumption, we think the rise in inflation has also clouded the outlook of consumers in Q4. source: BarCap |
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