KOF Economic Barometer - Zero Points

In December 2011 the KOF Economic Barometer slid again to a new low of 0.01. This suggests Swiss economic growth on a year-on-year perspective is going to stagnate over the first months of 2012.

Since May 2011 the KOF Economic Barometer has seen only one direction: downwards. In comparison to November (0.34, revised from 0.35), the Barometer fell by 0.33 points, and now stands at 0.01. Compared to November, the downward trend in December has weakened slightly. The current KOF Economic Barometer signals that year-on-year growth of Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to stagnate in the coming months.

The Economic Barometer is based on a multi-sectoral design with three modules. They are contributing towards the overall development of the Barometer as follows: the “Core GDP” module (GDP excluding construction and banking) is still showing a clear negative trend. Although the downward trend was less pronounced in December than in the previous month, the module became negative. The “Construction” module remains in positive territory though exhibiting an on-going downward momentum. The “Banking” module stays in positive territory but is moving sideways.

The “Core GDP” module, which comprises for more than 90% of Swiss GDP, dominates the KOF Economic Barometer. The underlying measurement models are “Swiss Industry”, “Swiss Consumption” and “Swiss Exports Destination EU”. They all clearly display a negative development; however, the negative trend has slowed down a little in December.