| Germany: Preliminary state CPI data for December were slightly weaker than expected |
| 29.12.11 12:45 | |
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Based on preliminary state CPI data published so far for December, we have revised down our pan German HICP and CPI forecasts by 0.1pp (to be published later today). We now expect the HICP to have increased 0.7% m/m, consistent with an inflation rate of 2.3% y/y (previously expected: +0.8% m/m, +2.4% y/y, the same as consensus) from 2.8% y/y in November, while we now forecast the CPI to have increased 0.7% m/m, taking the inflation rate down to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% y/y (previously we projected 0.8% m/m, 2.2% y/y, the same as consensus). At the euro area level we continue to expect the euro area "flash" HICP inflation to have declined to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y, below the consensus which is looking for a smaller decline of 0.2pp to 2.8% y/y (4 January). source: BarCap |
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