| Euro area car registrations: weak in December; prospects for 2012 very weak |
| 03.01.12 16:15 | |
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With four main euro area countries having released their new car registrations data for December, we estimate that they could decrease mildly by between 0-0.5% m/m in the euro area, after the 1.9% m/m and -3.6% m/m recorded in the past two months (seen in the official Eurostat series). For 2011 as a whole, they would be down slightly by 0.9%, somewhat recovering from -8.7% seen in 2010. Based on our baseline growth scenario of an overall eurozone GDP contraction of around 0.2% on average in 2012, the prospects for the auto sector are very weak, with risks, if anything, tilted to the downside. We project the unemployment rate to rise from 10.1% in Q3 11 to 11.1% by Q4 12. A lot will also depend on the time it takes for European and international leaders to break the negative feedback loop in confidence. source: BarCap |
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