Our monthly review of global industrial confidence data, based on information published by Markit and ISM, provides further evidence that global industrial production is likely to be stabilising in the months to come.

Indeed, on a monthly basis, our global aggregate of manufacturing PMI data experienced the best improvement since January 2011, rising (on a normalised basis) to -0.50, from -0.71 in November. Increases were printed across the board, including in the US, UK, Brazil and Asia, as well as slight improvement in the euro area, for the first time in eight months.
 
Additionally, our normalised series of the difference between the new orders and finished goods inventories subcomponents (which we consider a lead indicator of the manufacturing sector) shows a similar picture. This improved to -0.70 in December from -0.92 in November, a relatively strong improvement (the greatest single increase since January 2011). As was indicated in previous months, and mentioned in our previous PMI report, the relatively upbeat tone of US manufacturing sector confidence appears to be leading the global index.


source: BarCap