German exports (sa) rose 2.5% m/m in November, following a 2.9% m/m drop in October (revised from -3.6% m/m), reaching EUR90.7bn. Imports (sa) fell 0.4% m/m versus a 0.1% m/m gain (revised up from -1.0% m/m), reaching EUR75.7bn.

As a result, the net trade surplus was EUR15.1bn, up from EUR12.5bn in October and EUR15.2bn in September. According to our preliminary calculations, net trade may have contributed 0.8pp to q/q real GDP growth in Q4 2011 (after 0.1pp in Q3, 0.1pp in Q2 and 0.4pp in Q1 2011). In real terms, however, exports (sa) dropped 4.5% m/m, while imports fell 2.9% m/m, which may be taken as another sign of a weakening trend creep into the data (following the disappointing November German factory orders released on 6 January).  


source: BarCap