China: Soft landing on track, we do not expect aggressive easing
17.01.12 07:32

 
Today's better-than-expected GDP report for Q4 confirmed that the economy has not slowed as much as the market expected. This should provide further support to the case for a "soft landing" of the Chinese economy in the coming quarters.

 

The government will probably retain its macroeconomic policy mix of "prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy". The PBoC may further lower its reserve requirement ratios around the Chinese New Year. But this should be regarded as a step to stabilise liquidity conditions, not as aggressive easing. Entering 2012, we remain mindful of the potential downside risks facing the Chinese economy, particularly a deep recession of the global economy and a disorderly correction of the domestic housing market, and maintain our full-year GDP forecast of 8.1%.
 

source: BarCap


 
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