Euro area new orders declined by 1.3% m/m (-2.7% y/y) in November, less than our (-1.8% m/m) below-consensus (-2.3% m/m) expectations. Today's outturn thus comes after +1.5% m/m (1.5% y/y) in October (revised from 1.8% m/m).

The volatile component of orders provided notable support to the overall number as the core measure of new orders (excluding heavy transport equipment), fell by only 0.5% m/m. Taking into account today's print (and assuming a flat reading for December), new manufacturing orders in the euro area are down 4.2% q/q in Q4, the strongest negative reading since Q1 09 (-11.6%).  Looking ahead, we believe that core new orders momentum is likely to remain negative in Q4, but should improve in Q1 as suggested by the PMIs.


source: BarCap