| KOF Economic Barometer - Returns to Negative Territory |
| 27.01.12 10:44 | |
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The KOF Economic Barometer fell once again in January 2012, and is now back in negative territory for the first time since 2009. This suggests that over the next few months Swiss economic growth is likely to decline slightly in year-on-year terms. The KOF Economic Barometer has weakened further. It is now showing a negative value for the first time since 2009. However, the pace of decline has eased somewhat. Relative to December 2011 (0.01), the Barometer fell 0.18 points, and is now at –0.17 points. The current Barometer indicates that over the coming months Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to contract slightly in year-on-year terms. The Economic Barometer is based on a multisectoral design with three modules. They are contributing towards the overall development of the Barometer as follows: the “Core GDP” module (GDP excluding construction and banking) has fallen further into negative territory, although the slide is less pronounced than in December. The “Construction” module deteriorated further, and has fallen to zero. Only the “Banking” module remains stubbornly in positive territory. However, it is continuing to move sideways. The “Core GDP” module, which comprises for more than 90% of Swiss GDP, dominates the KOF Economic Barometer. The parameters upon which this is based are “Swiss Industry”, “Swiss Consumption” and “Export Destination EU”. These are all moving in clear negative territory. In the case of the “Swiss Industry” and “Export Destination EU” parameters, the negative momentum eased somewhat in January 2012. The downwards trend recorded by the “Swiss Consumption” parameter came to a halt. |
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