| German inflation comes within expectations |
| 30.01.12 15:05 | |
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The FSO estimated that the "preliminary" pan German CPI for January declined by 0.4% m/m (2.0% y/y), in line with the consensus and only very slightly below our forecast of -0.4% m/m (2.1% y/y). This comes as little surprise as the data released at the state level earlier (still missing Baden-Wuerttemberg at that stage) was mostly in line with our expectations. Today's outturn thus showed an one-tenth drop in the inflation rate after last month's three-tenths drop. Surprisingly, no actual data have been released on the harmonised measure, and Bloomberg is even saying that it could be released between today and 3 February. According to our aggregation of the components released at the state level, the food and beverages component was in line with our expectations (rising 0.5% m/m), while fuels were in the end less strong than what he had pencilled in at +2.0% m/m vs +5.6% m/m. We nevertheless note that this was the first increase since September 2011. Otherwise, underlying goods seem to be somewhat weaker than our expectations (-1.7% m/m, vs -1.0% m/m expected), which would mark a significant divergence from the seasonal pattern. Finally, package holidays were only slightly more negative than our forecast, at -16.8% m/m versus -15.4% m/m. source: BarCap |
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