| Economy Talk - 31-01-2012 |
| 31.01.12 17:37 | |
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Small step for the Eurozone. 25 of the 27 EU members may have agreed to write tougher fiscal rules into national law, but it will take a long time before the detail of the pact is agreed, legislation is enacted and the fiscal compact is complete. Link: Click Here UK lending remains weak. Bank of England (BoE) lending data for December were weaker than expected across the board. Net consumer credit fell £0.4bn (consensus: £0.4bn, BarCap: £0.5bn), the largest drop since records began in 1993. Net mortgage lending was £0.7bn (consensus/BarCap: £0.8bn), while the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase was 52.9k (consensus: 54.0k, BarCap: 54.7k). Link: Click Here No major new decisions taken at 30 January EU Summit. EU leaders are gradually putting in place the building blocks for closer fiscal and economic union. As widely anticipated, the ESM treaty was finalised while an assessment of the ESM/EFSF resources remains scheduled for March when the next formal EU Summit takes place. Link: Click Here Rising Health Care Costs Could Weigh On The G-20's Sovereign Creditworthiness, Says S&P Report. Mounting government spending on health care is likely to harm the sovereign creditworthiness of G-20 countries from the middle of the decade, if not kept in check by new and additional policy measures, Standard & Poor's said today in announcing the publication of its report, "Mounting Medical Care Spending Could Be Harmful To The G-20's Credit Health." Link: Click Here French household goods consumption unexpectedly slumps in December; Q4 private consumption forecast unchanged at -0.1% q/q. French household goods consumption unexpectedly slumped by 0.7% m/m (-3.1% y/y) in December, after +0.1% m/m (revised up 0.2pp) in November. Link: Click Here German retail sales (real, sa, excluding cars/petrol) unexpectedly fell again in December, by 1.4% m/m (-0.9% y/y), according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The weak November figure was slightly revised down to -1.0% from a previously reported -0.9%. Link: Click Here Economic Data Continues to Skew Positively. The economic highlight of last week was the release of the preliminary fourth-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) report, showing that GDP grew by 2.8% in the last quarter of 2011. This pace represents the fastest growth since the second quarter of 2010, but the details within the report were somewhat mixed. Link: Click Here US rates expected to remain low until at least late 2014. The eurozone will remain in the headlines as this week’s leaders’ summit is expected to agree the draft fiscal compact outlined last December. Enhancing the ESM would be seen as positive. The Fed took an even more dovish tone. No QE3 yet but rates expected to remain low until at least late 2014. Link: Click Here |
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