| January global manufacturing confidence: Stabilisation is on course for 2012 |
| 01.02.12 18:01 | |
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Following the publication today of January ISM and PMI manufacturing confidence data for various countries, our global manufacturing aggregate continues to signal that the global industrial sector is stabilising and are slightly more positive than was the case in Q4 11. Our aggregate series for global manufacturing confidence, presented on a 'normalised' basis, increased for the second consecutive month, to -0.32 in January, from -0.52 in December. Apart from slight declines in the series in Turkey and France, January manufacturing PMI numbers improved in all the 19 countries included in our aggregate. We continue to focus on the gap between the indices for new orders and finished goods inventories, given that this is a lead indicator of the aggregate global index: this increased by 0.4 to -0.34 (from -0.73 in December), the largest monthly gain in this spread since October 2010. Here as well, apart from France and Turkey (and Australia), the gap has improved in all the countries we monitor. Overall, today's data provide some further evidence that the global industrial sector is stabilising, but that the euro area industrial sector continues to be in recession. Please refer to the summary table of global IP below for detailed overview on the global industrial sector. source: BarCap |
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